eLong (艺龙)

参考: 旅游行业

一. 估值评级

2016年3月17日

以及要以18 USD私有化, 目前价格17.65, 不用看了.

二. 公司分析

资本运作

Seekingalpha.com报道，2016年2月4日，艺龙签署了一份最新并购协议，艺龙现股东组成的买方，将以每股普通股9美元或每股美国存托股18美元的价格现金收购尚未持有的艺龙发行股，较艺龙私有化要约前最后一个交易日，去年7月31日的收盘价溢价24%，交易预计于今年第二季度末前结束。艺龙的私有化金额共1.5亿美元，其中腾讯8000万美元，铂涛2700万美元，携程管理团队3500万美元，艺龙CEO江浩500万美元。一旦艺龙的私有化完成，携程占有股比没变，维持在38%；腾讯的持股比例会上升至27%，成为其第二大股东；铂涛将占股比26%。私有化之后的艺龙将考虑在国内上市，看好国内的战略新兴板。

业绩更新

FY2015业绩

第四季度住宿预订间夜数量约为1130万间夜，与2014年同期约940万间夜相比，同比增长了20%。艺龙2015年净收入为人民币10.32亿元，同比下降了5%。艺龙第四季度和2015年全年销售和营销支出同比增长分别为62%和32%，主要是由于获取新的移动用户成本的增加。第四季度和2015全年总务和行政支出同比增加分别为115%和114%，主要由于股票期权费用的增加。艺龙第四季度的净亏损为人民币3.30亿元，而2014年同期净亏损为人民币2.07亿元。2015年全年净亏损为人民币10.24亿元，而2014年全年净亏损为人民币2.69亿元。成本增长导致了亏损近一步扩大。

FY2014业绩

Total gross revenues decreased by 5.4% yoy to US$43.8mn.

• Hotel revenue: -6.4% yoy to US$33.9mn, driven by 27% hotel volume growth to 9.4mn rooms and offset by 26% decline in revenue per room night. Reasons:

  • More aggressive coupon discount and cash rebate in 4Q;
  • Continued penetration into lower end hotels that have lower ADR and commission rate. However, this was partially offset by growth of pre-purchased (merchant) hotel room night transactions where revenues were recognized on a gross basis.

  Revenues per room night are likely to continue to trend down till 1Q15 or the rest of 2015.

• Air ticketing commission revenues: -13.3% yoy to US$4.5mn as 23% increase in air volume was largely offset by 30% decrease average revenue per ticket Reasons:

  • Management commented that the big-three air line companies continue to consolidate the industry and gain increasing bargaining power against travel agents. Commission rate was cut from 3% to 2% in last year.
  • Bigger OTA like Ctrip is likely to offset some of the impact from commission cuts with the additional bonus rebate they will get from airlines

• Mobile:

  • Accumulated mobile download in 4Q14: 132mn (100mn in 3Q14, VS. CTrip 350mn app downloads in 3Q14)
  • In 4Q14, 55% of eLong's brand hotel room nights were booked from mobile, up from 48% the previous quarter and 30% in one year ago(Ctrip: 45% in 3Q14)