Reconstruct Breakdown - electricitymaps/electricitymaps-contrib GitHub Wiki

Model overview

The Reconstruct Breakdown model is used when the total production of a zone is available in real-time, but its breakdown is unknown or insufficient.

Some types of production modes are highly variable. For example, variable renewables vary due to weather: wind production depends on wind speed, and solar production depends on the amount of sunlight available. We construct a model for each of these production modes, that we trained on historical data. Once these production values have been estimated, the rest of the production is estimated by applying a static breakdown over the remaining production (total - variable renewables).

Detailed description

The diagram below details the inner workings of the Reconstruct Breakdown model.

The data required to run the model encompasses both real-time:

• total production
• weather features

And historical aggregates:

• historical production mix