Construct Breakdown - electricitymaps/electricitymaps-contrib GitHub Wiki

Model overview

The Construct Breakdown is an estimation model used for zones without any real-time data, and without granular (hourly) and up to date data. Typically, zones for which this model is applied only have monthly or yearly aggregates lagged by at least a few months to more than a year. These zones also show very little variable production modes (wind, solar, hydro etc) integration.

The model is simple, a total hourly production is first estimated with a simple model, calibrated to match the aggregates available. That total production is then broken down into a production mix using a static breakdown estimated from historical aggregates.

Detailed description

The diagram below details the inner workings of the Construct Breakdown model.

The only data sources needed are high level aggregated mixes to calibrate the inner models (total production and static breakdown)