CZOO - stevehemingway/trading GitHub Wiki
I was going to write about what a basket case this is, but it's not worth it. $CZOO is not available for short sale, but I wish it were. The following is from Overlooked Alpha:
There are a lot of names like CZOO out there right now, particularly in the de-SPAC world. A lot of investors are going to go broke chasing the wrong ones. A few will make big returns picking the right ones.
The United Kingdom’s version of Carvana — even Bloomberg has called it a “copycat” — is hemorrhaging cash just like its US counterpart. Shares are down 90%-plus from per-merger highs. Cazoo also has $630 million in convertible debt which is an obvious anchor (and may explain, at least partially, the still-high short interest below $1, both in terms of the “short to zero” case and long debt/short equity trades).
That said, Cazoo is still growing. Revenue increased 145% year-over-year in Q2, and 153% in the first half. Shares more than doubled after the earnings release earlier this month, though they’ve since retreated. There’s still a reasonable amount of cash on the balance sheet along with self-financed inventory. The company likely will exit EU markets, which limits upside but should also mitigate cash burn. The same is true of marketing expense: Cazoo spent lavishly on sports sponsorships to the point that 2021 marketing spend incredibly was £1,300 ($1,788 at last year’s average USD/GBP) per car sold.
This is a company that might be able to survive for longer than current cash and cash burn figures suggest. And in this market, survival plus a higher short interest plus a share price below $1 (it’s cheap!) plus volatility creates an intriguing trade.
Fundamentally, there’s one huge problem, admittedly. Cazoo’s first-half gross profit dollars were £3 million, or ~0.5% of revenue. The same criticism of Carvana — that it’s easy to grow selling $1.00 in value for $0.95 — certainly applies here. The most likely outcome is that CZOO hits zero.
But in this market, the question isn’t necessarily when or even if CZOO hits zero. It’s what happens on the way there.