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More ... latest change: 2025-02-21

Arbor Realty – Earnings Preview & CLO Update

February 21, 2025 - Despite Arbor’s best efforts of window dressing (and there was a lot of effort), Arbor’s CLO delinquencies are up 33% month-on-month in January 2025 to $1.1billion. Substantially all delinquencies have already been modified, many as recently as Q4 2024.

Prior to earnings, we thought it imperative to give an update. We believe Arbor has yet to admit the reality of its loan book, its a disaster. Ask yourself where are the impairments?

• Arbor has modified $4.7b of loans and holds $1.0b of delinquent loans.
• Modified loans represent ~82% of Arbor’s ~$6b CLO portfolio, and delinquent loans ~17%.
• Substantially all delinquent loans have already been modified, many as recently as Q4 2024.
• Delinquent loans are not being cured and are falling further into delinquency.
• $414m of loans are delinquent over 90 days.
• Arbor tries to cure the true value of its delinquencies by modifying loans month-on-month.
• Arbor has modified >$1b of loans in the last 2 months.
• Substantially all these loans had already been modified, many in Q4 2024. This is fraud.
• There is no underlying operational improvement secured against these loans, no opportunity to transition these loans into agency or any other feasible lending product, and (obviously) no buyer for these loans at their marked price. These loans are in transition to foreclosures, and nothing else.
• All our Arbor coverage can be found here (https://viceroyresearch.org/arbor-realty-research/) .
• Our X coverage here (https://x.com/viceroyresearch/status/1892898056737296613) :

Link to Report

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