Shipping Industry Investment

@(IvtRes)[shipping, cosco, 517hk, container, drybulk, bdi, ccbfi, bdti, bcti]

Initiate: July 13, 2015

Updates

Industry Update @ July 2015

YTD performance for shipping stocks: BI global marine transportation services peer up 5% this year (tanker performed best, up 20%). Chinese shipping consolidation prospects push BI marine index 5% higher. Dry Bulk: China take 40% market share in the dry-bulk trade (India may take a bite as China's slower economy growth).

• P/B for global shipping peers dropped below 1X (except stocks listed in A share China).
• Supply: Vessel supply may grow 5% ~ 6%;
• Demand: China (1. Nickel ore: imported nickel ore dropped 48% in 2015 due to high stocking to deal with Indonesia's nickel ore ban. China now import lower-grade ore from the Philippines. 2. Decelarating of iron-ore demand, and more percentage from Australia instead of Brzail --> low volume & low tons*miles. 3. Coal demand: imported coal dropped from 20-30mn tons/month in 2012 to 10mn tons/month now. Thermal coal imports may drop 9% in this year. BTW coal imports for Japan & Taiwan are all weak). India: will buoy demand for dry bulk shipping due to strong demand.
• Time charer rates: fell 3% in 2014, may drop 14% in 2015 (source: Bloomberg). Consensus is calling for 2016 rates to rise 18% and accelerate to 54% in 2017 (depends on Chinese iron ore/coal demand plus disciplined fleet management).

  S&P 500 Index: 2.77X P/B; Hang Seng Index: 1.37X P/B;

Tanker:

• Supply & Demand: Wold oil demand is expected to grow 1.2% in 2015 led by the asia-pacific region. Tanker demand growth will outpace net supply growth of 2.2% in 2015.
• Time charter estimate:
  • Dirty tankers: increase 42% in 2015, but drop 12% in 2016 and drop 3% in 2017;
  • Clean tankers: Still have growth in 2016 & 2017.
• U.S. Energy boom reshape tanker trade flows and capacity: U.S. satisfying more of its energy needs domestically --> more curde oil from western Africa historically imported to the U.S. now heading to Asia --> higher ton-miles.

Dirty tankers are defined as those carrying crude, fuel oil or other “dirty” products such as vacuum gasoil or dirty condensate. Clean tankers carry light ends such as gasoline, middles distillates or naphtha.

Container:

• Several challenges: excess capacity (may last through 2016 with growth in supply estimated to outpace demand 3% to 5%, exacerbated by the deployment of larger vessels); Ports congestion; Regulations.
• Supply: may grow 6% to 8% due to decelerated scrap rates, larger vessels delivery;
• Fuel cost: low bunker oil price make costs down and margins up. (Maersk said for every $100 a ton reduction in bunker fuel prices, its profit would increase by about $200mn).
• Alliance: Maersk & MSC (2M) alliance: alliance started earlier 2015.

China Updates:

• 铁矿石: 中国2014年7月港口铁矿石产量达到顶点1.15亿吨, 从此逐步下降到现在的8千多万吨. 铁矿石期货价格从2014年1月的857元/吨一直下跌到2015年7月20日的360元/吨. FAI (基建投资与房地产投资)持续下降, 没有看到明显的回升.
  • 矿石库存: 矿石低位, 钢厂适当补矿石库存.
  • 2Q开始矿价上升, 钢厂开始启用国内矿, 导致国内矿库存下降, 国内矿厂开始复产, 3Q估计也会继续, 矿价难以回升. 事实上, 从7月开始矿价已经开始下降.
  • 钢材: 根据国内兰格钢铁, 国内钢材库存处在地位运行 (一方面是需求不好, 一方面又指示若是需求回升, 有补库存带来的积极拉动).
  • 总体判断: 在钢材实质需求恢复之前, 目前矿石的不库存应该很快结束, 给海运带来的好处应该不会持久.

Introduction

行业跟踪指标

Sources:

• Bloomberg: BDI (BPI, BCI, BSI... 其中BCI直接指示铁矿石运价)
• 上海航运交易所: CBFI, CCFI
• 中国国际海运网: BDTI, HRCI
• 凤凰网行业数据中心
• 中国海事服务网 - 指数: BDTI, BCTI, CCFI, CCBFI... [Great!]
• Wind: CBFI, CCBFI, BDI...

Index:

• 行业指数和运费数据：Bloomberg、Clarkson、Drewry、Fearnley
  • 干散货运价指数:
    • BDI指数(Bloomberg: BDIY). BDI包括了BSI(灵便船), BPI(巴拿马型船), BCI(海峡型船), BHMI(超灵便)等子指数.
    • 中国沿海散货运价指数: CCBFI (另外还有天津航运指数TSI, 北方国际集装箱运价指数TCI, 北方国际干散货运价指数TBI).
  • 集装箱指数: 国际集装箱租船指数 HRCI, 中国出口集装箱运价指数__CCFI__
  • 油船运价指数: 原油运价指数__BDTI__/成品油运价指数__BCTI__;
• 行业年度生产数据： Clarkson、Drewry、Fearnley、IEA
• 公司月度生产数据：各公司网站或邮件发送，一般月中披露上月数据；

对比: 可以将BDI指数对比大宗商品CRB指数.

近期几个主要指标变动:

BDI Index grabbed in July 13, 2015:

CCBFI (中国沿海干散货运价指数):

CCFI (中国出口集装箱运价指数):

经验判断：航运业和全球GDP具有强相关性。具体到各子行业：

• 散货海运量：主要跟踪钢铁产业的需求和产能增长情况
• 油品运输量：主要跟踪全球主要油品消耗国成品油需求和炼厂产能增长情况
• 集装箱运输量：主要跟踪欧美经济增长率，PMI具有明显领先意义

行业基本情况

按照货物种类, 可以分为: 干散货海运（包括铁矿石、煤炭、粮食等）, 油品运输（原油、成品油、液态化工品等），集装箱运输, 特种运输（液态化工品、LNG、大型机械设备、海上钻井平台、汽车）等.

• 干散货运输: 矿石占30%, 煤25% (动力煤, 冶金煤), 谷物(7%-8%), 少数货物(37%). [2010年Citics数据]
• 油品运输: 主要是原油, 还有成品油.
• 集装箱运输: 集中度比干散货运输高很多, 由于其进入门槛高.

FFA的影响:

• FFA是“Forward Freight Agreements”的缩写，即“远期运费协议” ，协议规定了具体的航线、价格、数量等，且双方约定在未来某一时点，收取或支付依据BDI与合同约定价格的运费差额。FFA目前主要包括散货和油运。
• 参与方：主要包括航运商、贸易商、生产商、金融企业
• 场内和场外交易：场内交易是标准化交易，采取保证金方式，交易规则类似期货市场；场外交易是非标准化交易，交易双方协商确定合约内容，无需保证金但存在履约信用风险。
• FFA的影响：本质是基于航运业运费高度波动产生的套保工具，但2007年以来随着大量投资银行加入场内交易，投机性越来越强。

成本: 对于集运业务，与集装箱运量相关的设备及货物运输成本占比最大；对散货和油轮业务，与船舶相关的固定成本影响最大。

中国有四大轮船公司: 中远集团, 中海集团, 招商轮船局, 中外运(新集团?)

Players

Cosco Group

关于 shipping 行业的国资整合:

COSCO International (517 HK)

中远集团的子公司, 业务主要是提供船舶服务. 主要业务及其利润占比如下:

OP大部分来自于母公司中远集团, 因此对Cosoco International的投资主要看母公司的船队补充计划:

2013年之前中远的船队变动情况如下:

Orders through COSCO International's ship trading agency business:

	2013	2014
New build delivery	22 vessels, 1.5mn DWT	18 vessels, 1.8mn DWT
New build contract	18 vessels, 2.39mn DWT	58 vessels, 5.15mn DWT
Snd-hand vessels	67 vessels, 3.21mn DWT	82 vessels, 3.98mn DWT
Total order on hand	45 vessels, 6.03mn DW	85 vessels, 9.32mn DWT

SITC International (海丰国际, 1308 HK)

Refer to: SITC International

海丰国际的ROE水平能达到15%以上.海丰国际是Container shipping player, 专注于亚洲区域内, 并且陆上的货代和保险与海上的货运结合非常紧密, 所以盈利能力很强.

台湾的万海航运也能达到这么高的水平), 原因何在? 原因之一估计也是因为专注于亚洲区域内集运, 效率较高.

台湾企业: 长荣, 阳明, 万海

2Q15亚欧航线剧烈波动, 亚洲近洋航线运价, 货量都相对较为稳定. 阳明, 长荣两岸/东南亚/中东区域以低价竞争, 影响了以正常报价的万海这类企业. 2Q15三家公司业绩都不达预期.