mar02_mar22_2015_wu - ookui/invest GitHub Wiki
FY14 result: sales up 3.4% yoy to HKD 9.57bn, np flat at HKD 765mn, inline. 2H14 GP margin improved by 2.3ppt to 19.9% (FY14: 18.9%). Mgmt expect to further improve its GM by 1-2ppt in 2015, and targeting 5-10% sales growth in 2015.
PC industry: IDC cut 2015 PC shipments growth to -4.9% (vs. 3.3% before), but hold positive for transformer (like ASUS' products) & Windows tablet (11.6mn in 2014 --> 16.3mn in 2015 --> 38mn in 2019, shares are 5.1%-->7%-->14.1%).
Price pressure in PC constrains the valuation improvement. No big surprise in the near future.
FY14 results: Revenue was up 26% yoy, and margins kept flat. EPS up 25.4%, DPS up 23.8%. Earnings are in line with expectations, also beat the mgmt's guidance given in the start of 2014. Trade receivables and payables is rising due to more BT projects.
Projects: cash construction orders seems be recovering in HK and Macau in Jan-Feb 2015. No change on the affordable housing starts expectation in 2015E.
Valuation: 15F/16F P/E are 9.5X/7.6X, in the low range of its history. Considering its stable growth, it is not a high valuation.
Revenue up 10.8% to RMB11.2 bn, EBT flat at RMB1,182 mn, NP up 5.2% to RMB1,023.
- Segment margins: segment margin for sector "Energy" and "Chemical" declined from 14.0%/15.6% to 11.1%/12.1%, while margin for liquid food increased from 6.8% to 10.1%. Combined margin declined from 13.3% to 11.2%. Sales growth for liquid food is 44.2%.
- Accounts receivable increased from RMB2.4bn to RMB3.1 bn, while inventory decreased from RMB2.5 bn to RMB1.96 bn. --> Company man have recognized income earlier. Should double check.
- Dividend: 0.195HKD/share (vs. 0.12HKD in FY13), 3.25% yield ratio (corresponding to 6HKD stock price).
- Gas reform: the affect should be double checked.
- Valuation: BB 15F P/E 8.5X. In its low range.
FY14: sales up 44.4%, EBT up 61.7%, NP up 63.2%. Inline with the estimate. Good growth already shown in 3Q14 result, because the good demand from railway locomotive and High-Speed. More should see the acquisition affect. Rate after attending the analyst meeting.
FY14: results missed. Sales +7% to RMB335 mn(below estimate RMB360 mn), net profit belongs to shareholders declined -16% yoy (below estimate), and EPS declined -29% to 0.533 HKD.
- Administrative expenses, including the R&D on cloud busniess and IPO cost, increased 97% which harmed the operating margin.
- Revenue: no revenue from cloud because the services are free currently. Software sales flat due to the sluggish economy.
- Valuation: current P/E 23X. Hard to estimate next year's result, need to see mgmt's comment. Not cheap, because the 30%+ net margin is too high for a software company. Neutral.
4Q14 result: revenue increased by 56% to RMB 854mn, beat estimate; Adjusted EBITDA increased by 55.7% to RMB160 mn. FY14 Results: sales +46% (beat estimate), adjusted EBITDA +53% yoy. Add 3,378 cabinets to 21,522 (+53% yoy). Operating expenses increased 100%+, which made a low net operating margin and net margin.
Rating: buy (market cap USD1.5bn) Reasons: the expenses are bigger than expected which harm its margin. Stock price will reflected below-estimate net profit in short term, while in mid-to-long term there is still value.
Opinion: Neutral
Reasons: Though lens sets sector has a good growth and margin, CCM as the Sunny's major business still face firece competition. BB 15F/16F P/E are 15X & 12.6X, fair.
FY14 Results:
- 2014 annual revenue/net income of Rmb8.4bn/561mn, up 45%/27%, a little bellow BB estimate
- Margins: improved to 12% in 2H14, due to better yield and less competition in high-end CCM.
- Products mix:
- Handset lens, management guided for 50% yoy shipment growth. 8M mix rose to 19.2% (8.6% in 2013) and 10M+ to 2.0% during 2014;
- Vehicle lenses, Sunny guided for 40% yoy shipment growth, following a 64.6% CAGR for 2012-2014.Handset & vehicle lenses will serve as a strong ASP/GM driver in 2015.
- CCM still faces fierce competiton in the next few years.
Opinion: neutral. Reasons: SP growth can't sustain, but mgmt team gave a beat guidance for 2015. 7.3X 15 forward P/E now.
FY14 Result:
- Net profit grew 250% yoy to HKD 1.1bn, inline with BB consensus. GM improved sequentially in 4Q14 to 19.2%.
- Guidance: revenue grow 30% yoy in 2015, and imply net profit will grow 30% too (vs BB estimate 20% sales growth and 18% net profit growth).
- Reasons for high growth: focus in America and EMEA market instead of in China, where TCLM can only break even.
Key takeaway:
- Telcom operators' base station construction will be flat yoy in 2015 (from Huawei)
- Domestic demand of SP in China will declined yoy in 2015, but the production for Chinese players will increase 10%+ yoy (from Ofilm)
- On-cell / In-cell capacity will increase more and more, make over-capacity more fiercely (from Ofilm).
- A interesting company called Derun (得润电子, 002055 CH)。Original business is connector for home electronics (45%); New businesses include FPC for SP & CCM, connectors for Automobiles and Type-C connectors for boards. Customers include FA Audi and others. Start two JVs with a German company for supplying connectors.
- Hanslaser (大族激光,002008 CH): expand from laser to robot