mar02_mar22_2015_wu - ookui/invest GitHub Wiki

Weekly Meeting - Telligent

2015 Q1

Week 3: Mar 16 ~ Mar 22

Juteng (3336 HK, rating: buy)

FY14 result: sales up 3.4% yoy to HKD 9.57bn, np flat at HKD 765mn, inline. 2H14 GP margin improved by 2.3ppt to 19.9% (FY14: 18.9%). Mgmt expect to further improve its GM by 1-2ppt in 2015, and targeting 5-10% sales growth in 2015.

PC industry: IDC cut 2015 PC shipments growth to -4.9% (vs. 3.3% before), but hold positive for transformer (like ASUS' products) & Windows tablet (11.6mn in 2014 --> 16.3mn in 2015 --> 38mn in 2019, shares are 5.1%-->7%-->14.1%).

pc-shipment-idc

Price pressure in PC constrains the valuation improvement. No big surprise in the near future.

CSCI (3311 HK, rating: neutral)

FY14 results: Revenue was up 26% yoy, and margins kept flat. EPS up 25.4%, DPS up 23.8%. Earnings are in line with expectations, also beat the mgmt's guidance given in the start of 2014. Trade receivables and payables is rising due to more BT projects.

Projects: cash construction orders seems be recovering in HK and Macau in Jan-Feb 2015. No change on the affordable housing starts expectation in 2015E.

Valuation: 15F/16F P/E are 9.5X/7.6X, in the low range of its history. Considering its stable growth, it is not a high valuation.

CIMC Enric (3899 HK, rating: decide after the analyst meeting)

Revenue up 10.8% to RMB11.2 bn, EBT flat at RMB1,182 mn, NP up 5.2% to RMB1,023.

  • Segment margins: segment margin for sector "Energy" and "Chemical" declined from 14.0%/15.6% to 11.1%/12.1%, while margin for liquid food increased from 6.8% to 10.1%. Combined margin declined from 13.3% to 11.2%. Sales growth for liquid food is 44.2%.
  • Accounts receivable increased from RMB2.4bn to RMB3.1 bn, while inventory decreased from RMB2.5 bn to RMB1.96 bn. --> Company man have recognized income earlier. Should double check.
  • Dividend: 0.195HKD/share (vs. 0.12HKD in FY13), 3.25% yield ratio (corresponding to 6HKD stock price).
  • Gas reform: the affect should be double checked.
  • Valuation: BB 15F P/E 8.5X. In its low range.
Zhuzhou CSR (3898 HK, rating: decide after analyst meeting)

FY14: sales up 44.4%, EBT up 61.7%, NP up 63.2%. Inline with the estimate. Good growth already shown in 3Q14 result, because the good demand from railway locomotive and High-Speed. More should see the acquisition affect. Rate after attending the analyst meeting.

Chanjet (1588 HK, rating: neutral)

FY14: results missed. Sales +7% to RMB335 mn(below estimate RMB360 mn), net profit belongs to shareholders declined -16% yoy (below estimate), and EPS declined -29% to 0.533 HKD.

  • Administrative expenses, including the R&D on cloud busniess and IPO cost, increased 97% which harmed the operating margin.
  • Revenue: no revenue from cloud because the services are free currently. Software sales flat due to the sluggish economy.
  • Valuation: current P/E 23X. Hard to estimate next year's result, need to see mgmt's comment. Not cheap, because the 30%+ net margin is too high for a software company. Neutral.

Week 2: Mar 9 ~ Mar 15

21Vianet (VNET US)

4Q14 result: revenue increased by 56% to RMB 854mn, beat estimate; Adjusted EBITDA increased by 55.7% to RMB160 mn. FY14 Results: sales +46% (beat estimate), adjusted EBITDA +53% yoy. Add 3,378 cabinets to 21,522 (+53% yoy). Operating expenses increased 100%+, which made a low net operating margin and net margin.

Rating: buy (market cap USD1.5bn) Reasons: the expenses are bigger than expected which harm its margin. Stock price will reflected below-estimate net profit in short term, while in mid-to-long term there is still value.

Sunny Optical (2382 HK)

Opinion: Neutral

Reasons: Though lens sets sector has a good growth and margin, CCM as the Sunny's major business still face firece competition. BB 15F/16F P/E are 15X & 12.6X, fair.

FY14 Results:

  • 2014 annual revenue/net income of Rmb8.4bn/561mn, up 45%/27%, a little bellow BB estimate
  • Margins: improved to 12% in 2H14, due to better yield and less competition in high-end CCM.
  • Products mix:
    • Handset lens, management guided for 50% yoy shipment growth. 8M mix rose to 19.2% (8.6% in 2013) and 10M+ to 2.0% during 2014;
    • Vehicle lenses, Sunny guided for 40% yoy shipment growth, following a 64.6% CAGR for 2012-2014.Handset & vehicle lenses will serve as a strong ASP/GM driver in 2015.
    • CCM still faces fierce competiton in the next few years.

sunnyoptical-products-evolve

Week 1: March 2 ~ March 8

TCL Communication (2618 HK)

Opinion: neutral. Reasons: SP growth can't sustain, but mgmt team gave a beat guidance for 2015. 7.3X 15 forward P/E now.

FY14 Result:

  • Net profit grew 250% yoy to HKD 1.1bn, inline with BB consensus. GM improved sequentially in 4Q14 to 19.2%.
  • Guidance: revenue grow 30% yoy in 2015, and imply net profit will grow 30% too (vs BB estimate 20% sales growth and 18% net profit growth).
  • Reasons for high growth: focus in America and EMEA market instead of in China, where TCLM can only break even.
CICC Tech Trip in SZ (Mar 5 ~ Mar 6)

Key takeaway:

  • Telcom operators' base station construction will be flat yoy in 2015 (from Huawei)
  • Domestic demand of SP in China will declined yoy in 2015, but the production for Chinese players will increase 10%+ yoy (from Ofilm)
  • On-cell / In-cell capacity will increase more and more, make over-capacity more fiercely (from Ofilm).
  • A interesting company called Derun (得润电子, 002055 CH)。Original business is connector for home electronics (45%); New businesses include FPC for SP & CCM, connectors for Automobiles and Type-C connectors for boards. Customers include FA Audi and others. Start two JVs with a German company for supplying connectors.
  • Hanslaser (大族激光,002008 CH): expand from laser to robot
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