Alibaba (BABA US)

Initiate: Nov 2014 | Update: Aug 13, 2015

Business

Majority of Alibaba's revenue comes from China Retail, which includes Taobao & T-Mall. GMV of FY14 accounted for 3.0% domestic China GDP.

阿里的发展短期取决于China Retail的变现能力。通过两个方向来做：提升GMV；提升Take rate (monetization rate)。

• 首先来看GMV的提升上: FY14 Alibaba Taobao的GMV为RMB 1,173bn，T-Mall为505bn，同比增速分别为42.4%，20.2%。
• Monetization Rate: FY14综合大约为2.6%，Taobao大约为1.6%，T-Mall大约为3%。

投资分析

2015年8月31日

Alibaba's 12-mon forward P/E was continued to be adjusted down from nearly 45X in Nov2014 to 25X now. Due to negative sentiment about e-commerce now, current vauaton level is fair. Wait for entry point.

业绩更新

1QFY17 (CY2Q16)

总体判断:

• 收入判断: 由于天猫超市和天猫国际的GMV高速增长以及Taobao的稳定, GMV短期看增速风险变小; 随着Take rate提高, 收入增速也保持高位, 但需要观察mobile端逐渐变高的take rate是否有见顶迹象;
• 利润判断: 天猫超市/并购的Youku和Lazada/O2O 需要继续投入, 利润率会受到影响;
• 估值: 目前股价对应17F/18F 28X和22X, 处于历史偏低的位置, 目前看比较合理, 向上的空间也不太大. 蚂蚁金服正在争取明年上市, 目前估值已达800亿~1,000亿美元, 上市后阿里将持股33%左右;
• 投资建议: BABA的看点已经过渡到国际业务, 获利能力和云的发展, 短期看盈利上调, 中期有利润风险, 目前的take rate太高了, 中性, 观察.

业绩要点:

• 收入和净利润超预期, 因为GMV增速和移动端转化率超预期: 收入增长59%到48.4亿美元 (一致预期45.4亿美元), 其中中国区电商业务增长49%. 移动端take rate 2.8%, 已经超过PC端. 阿里云收入12.4亿, 占比3.87%, 同比增加156%. GMV 8,370亿, 同比24%, 超市场预期, 主要是Taobao, 天猫超市和天猫国际带来的增速.
• 云计算业务: 付费客户57.7万, 收入同比增长156%, 亏损大幅减少, adjusted EBITA margin 从-76%增加到-13%, 并且预计很快开始盈亏平衡;
• 天猫国际: 同比增长123%, 原因是从4月中旬开始并表收购的Lazada, 如果去除Lazada, 同比增长26%.
• Guidance: 年初指引全年收入增长48%+, 1QFY17没有做出改变.

FY1Q16 (CY2Q15)

Revenue increased 28% yoy to RMB20.2 bn in FY1Q16, a little below estimate.

• GMV: grew +34% yoy to RMB673 bn (Taobao +25% yoy to RMB427 bn, TMall +55% to RMB 246bn), considerably slower than the 40%/49% yoy growth seen in FY4Q15/FY3Q15. Active buyers grew 32% yoy to 367mn and average GMV per buyer grew 2% yoy.
• Monetization ratio: blended 2.33% was substantially weaker than 2.52% a year ago. Mobile take rate increased strongly to 2.16% (vs. 1.73% a year ago), while mobile GMV accounted for 55% of total GMV (vs. 33% last year). PC take rate was hit by the suspension of online lottery (RMB500 mn of revenue lost yoy) and price cuts on Juhusuan (only 2.55% in this quarter vs. 3.02% last year).

If lottery sales & SME loan business revenue was excluded, total revenue would have increased by 36% yoy.