Core Month 12 Intraday Top Down Analysis - newsqlguru/ict-index GitHub Wiki

ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 12 - Intraday Top Down Analysis

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oec_0NM_OeY&list=PLVgHx4Z63paaQ-8s2wrhfi6N2O_lTPuAI&index=4

4h to 5m chart analysis and execution:

Determine impact of 4h perspective on a given asset or market
Identify directional bias for the HTF Intraday 4h chart
Classify the PD Arrays accurately to assist in Key Levels
Complete an Institutional Analysis on a 4h Basis

Day of Week

4h chart, first thing, what day are we on.
Prefers weekend analysis, for the next week.
- Is there an opening gap?
- Is there a rush to get to a price level?
- Watching Monday to see what Tuesday or Wednesday can bring for one shot one kill.
- All monthly, weekly, daily analysis is included when viewing the 4h perspective.
- Identifies profiles and templates exist for that day.
- Use the previous Daily, Weekly, and Monthly analysis.
- Look for reasons to trade in that HTF Directional Bias.
- If Bearish from HTF
  - Look for shorts on Mondays, Tuesdays, and Wednesdays.
- If Bullish from HTF
  - Look for longs on Mondays, Tuesdays, and Wednesdays.
- If expecting the M/T/W influence and it doesn't materialize, look for late week scenarios on Thursday and Friday, the economic calendar with assist with this.
  - If there is no bullish or bearish move and weekly or daily templates don't apply on M/T/W or we got it wrong etc.
    - Look for Thurs/Fri templates and what kind of weekly template PA aligns with, making use of economic calendar.

IPDA True Day

Only focus on setups that make up true day. 00:00 - 15:00 EST.
Specific times of the day, Kill zones , London Open, NY Open, Asia.
Look for setups from the HTFs Analysis within the hours defined by True Day.
The bulk of the daily volume will be between 03:00 - 10:00 NY time.
We want to position ourselves correctly ahead of this window or during the first half of it.
After New York Open, we have lower expectations, and must be content with smaller objectives intraday.

Time of day Kill Zones

Utilizing the HTF, look for a trade setup in the London Open Killzone.
- Aim for the low of the day when HTF is bullish
  - If failed in London, look for NY Open setup to reposition or get into a position.
Utilizing the HTF, look for a trade setup in the London Open Killzone.
- Aim for the high of the day when HTF is bearish
  - If failed in London, look for NY Open setup to reposition or get into a position.
Look to collapse bulk or all of intraday positions starting at 10:00 to 11:00 NY Time.
- Take profits, as London Close starts at 10:00-11:00

Include CBDR (Central Bank Dealers Range)

Incorporate the range in price high/low from 14:00 - 20:00 EST.
Look for consolidations within the CBDR
Identify STDev that align with potential highs and lows of the day.
Typically most days will be within +/- 3 STDevs of CBDR
When the HTF Analysis suggests bullishness, use -1, -2, -3 STDev of the CBDR for long entries.
- Look for 15-60 min Discount Arrays that overlap with these STDev to determine which to frame a trade entry on.
When the HTF Analysis suggests bearishness, use +1, +2, +3 STDev of the CBDR for short entries.
- Look for 15-60 min Premium Arrays that overlap with these STDev to determine which to frame a trade entry on.
We are not buying or selling at STDev alone, we are looking for PD Arrays that overlap with the STDevs to frame a trade entry.
- PDA, looking for less than 4h may be an FVG or an old high or other PD Array POI, but it overlaps with STDev level.
We blend concepts, to form a trade execution.
This is all about the PD Array Matrix, if we don't use this and blend it, we will not be successful with ICT trading.

Asian Range

StDev
If HTF Analysis is Bullish
- Look to enter longs below the Asian Range High, preferable under the Low of the range.
  - Should as be high probability trade setups in either case
If HTF Analysis is Bearish
- Look to enter shorts above the Asian Range Low, preferable above the High of the range.
  - Should as be high probability trade setups in either case
If Bullish, expect the Asian Range High to be retested, for entry or adding positions Long.
If Bearish, expect the Asian Range Low to be retested, for entry or adding positions Short.
Many times price will retest the Asian Range High/Low and then accelerate towards the NY Open.
- Sometimes during the NY Open, the Asian Range High/Low will be retested as support/resistance then continue the move into London Close, and sometimes continue into the next day.
- This is an opportunity to enter the trade or add positions at NY Open.
For daily range projections, look for STDev to overlap with CBDR for Low and High of the day.
- CBDR + Asian Range + PD Arrays when in confluence we have a good chance of knowing the high and low of day.

Flout (CBDR range + Asian range total range high and low)

StDev
If Bullish, look for overlapping in the total range of CBDR + Asian Range that have been divided in half as 1 STDev.
- Look for confluences of FLOUT -STDev and CBDR and AR with Discount Arrays on the 60-15m for ideal entries.
If Bearish, look for overlapping in the total range of CBDR + Asian Range that have been divided in half as 1 STDev.
- Look for confluences of FLOUT +STDev and CBDR and AR with Premium Arrays on the 60-15m for ideal entries.
HH/LL in form of wick and body of candles
i.e. If the FLOUT range HH/LL is 40 pips divide by half, for 20 pips.
- 20 pips is the STDev for FLOUT,
- From center point (equilibrium)
  - Project the FLOUT STDev +/- 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7...
- Look for confluences of FLOUT STDev + CBDR + Asian Range + PD Arrays on 60-15m for ideal trade entries.
- Flout is only half the total range, nesting them out lower and lower, FLOUT can be many STDevs
  - Flout can be many STDevs, as the Daily Range moves we add another level of FLOUT STDev.
    - When we approach extremes of the day/range and we are close to London Close we are probably close to the high/low of the day.
- Asian Range STDev rule, can be 1 or 2 STDevs to create high or low of day.
- What is the CBDR STDev range rule?

Intraday Profiles

What do the intraday models suggest in terms of PA
Are we going to have a down day with up judas swing in london or are we going to have a quiet london and run in NY?
Refer to intraday profiles
When Bearish, look for High of Day in London
When Bullish, look for Low of Day in London
When Bearish and 4h has not yet traded to a Discount Array, expect NY Open to continue Lower.
When Bullish and 4h has not yet traded to a Premium Array, expect NY Open to continue Higher.
How to know if there will be a NY session reversal?
- If it trades to a 4h Premium Array, there is probably going to be a market reversal in NY, and it's going to move lower.
- If its been trading down and trades to a 4h discount array during the NY session, there is a high probability price will create a session reversal.
As long as that has not happened, NY is likely to continue the trend and London and NY will be in agreement on direction.
See April Content for Intraday Profiles

PD Array

Qualification for targets and entries.
Once we've determined the portion of Market Structure we want to use for trade ideas.
- Like the weekly, round each PD Array to the nearest 0.10 or ._5 level.
- PD Arrays (Premium) above market price are rounded down, for low hanging fruit.
- PD Arrays (Discount) below market price are rounded up, to the nearest adjusted number.
- This is Key Level Calibration.

ADR projections

Help facilitate daily highs and lows on the day.
Use a 5 day ADR to help determine intraday range extremes, for a single day.
If Bullish, look for markets to trade to the ADR high, if high is broken use the Fib to project on ADR range high and low for 1.27% and 1.62% extensions as targets.
- Look for alignment at these levels with a PD Array.
If Bearish, look for markets to trade to the ADR low, if low is broken use the Fib to project on ADR range high and low for 1.27% and 1.62% extensions as targets.
- Look for alignment at these levels with a PD Array.
There must be overlap of the projection levels and PD Array for the levels to be meaningful to price action, on 60-15m time frame.
Blending those things together and incorporating CBDR, AR, FLOUT STDevs we can get many times within 10 pips of daily high or low.
This is the reason we get out 10 pips before the end of the run, while price is moving in our direction.
Projections are not absolute, STDev assist in determining levels.
All we care about is getting consistent range expansion and capturing the move.

Patterns for Consideration

As a technical trader, we only need one setup or "pattern" to trade on.
Condition, HTF Directional Bias
Stage, what sets your trade up, what's it look like, the setup is the key thing for execution.
Execution - Whether we are entering on limit or market orders, where we enter.
At some point we will arrive at all conditions agreeing.
Now we have to look for a trade setup.
Then we have to execute.

Two setups ICT trades, doesn't do anything else. (Does't mean we can't experiment or see other trades) (experiment in paper account)

Only need one pattern, to build consistency, to build confidence, to stick with it.
- We are going to be wrong, use demo account for testing.
Two pattern ICT hunts
1. ICT Bullish Pattern
  - Condition:
    - HTF Bullish
  - Stage:
    - Price bounces off HTF Discount Array.
    - Impulse Swing creates FVG near Swing Low
      - Note ICT shows an Order Block, before the Impulse Swing.
    - Short Term Low forms in the market structure
      - Fails to rally higher after equal highs or higher highs is formed.
    - Price drops down into the FVG and under the Short Term Low forming after the Impulse Swing forms. Sell Stops are triggered.
      - Smart Money uses Offset Accumulation to pair Long Entries with Sell Stop Raid.
        
        Discount Entry.
  - This is the Fair Value Play or OTE.
    - Pull fib from low to impulse swing after it makes an attempt to rally higher.
    - Then when drops to OTE
      - That overlapping with an FVG + Short Term Low (SSL raid) + Bullish OB
      - Give us 4 confluences
      - This is a high probability trade.
        
        Not a guarantee.
      - There are many times that price will rally up, retrace, and there is no short term low in between, this has a lower probability.
      - This is an internal range liquidity, range expansion trade.
        
        Creates range from low of order block to high of impulse swing and starts to retrace.
        
        While it's retracing inside the range it's internal range liquidity
        
        We go long with the expectation that price will expand and seek external range liquidity.
        
        Our target is the external range liquidity.
2. ICT Bullish Pattern
  - Condition
    - HTF Bullish
  - Stage
    - Price will bounce prior (stops short of discount array) to HTF Discount Array.
      - This is fake low, where price will run down past the early Bulls.
    - Price Drops lower into the anticipated HTF Discount Array
      - Price raids Sell Stop Liquidity Pool
    - Sell Stops are triggered
      - Smart Money uses Offset Accumulation to pair Long Entries with Sell Stop Raid.
    - Discount Entry.
    - ICT Turtle Soup Entry.
  - ICT is patience because he knows what he is looking for.
    - This allows him to control his emotions.
  - Wait for the price to retrace to a discount array.
3. ICT Bullish Pattern (if we saw #2 but missed the entry)
  - Condition
    - HTF Bullish
  - Stage
    - Price bounces prior to discount array
    - Price drops lower into the anticipated HTF Discount Array and raids Sell Stop Liquidity Pool.
    - Sell Stops are Triggered, smart money uses Offset Accumulation to pair Long entries with Sell Stop Raid.
    - Discount Entry. ICT Turtle Soup Entry
    - If we missed the Lower Turtle Soup Entry Long
      - Wait for the Bullish Breaker to enter Long or if we are already Long we can pyramid into the original entry.
      - The Bullish Breaker provides the stage for entry.
        
        Bullish Breaker, up close candle at top of swing, before retracement.
      - Inside of the Bullish Breaker Level of Price Action
        
        On a lower time frame, we will see an OTE entry.
        
        It will trade into a LTF Bullish Order Block or Discount Array like a FVG.
        
        Then price will expand
      - After price has ran the stops in a discount array and formed a Bullish Breaker we can have some confidence that price will not retrace to this level, and it will expand in our direction moving quickly away from the area to price for premium.
- All these patterns are Fractal (Universal)
  - Internal Range Liquidity (OTE)
  - External Range Liquidity (Turtle Soup)
    - If we miss Turtle Soup, wait for Breaker, look for OTE.
- If you don't see these patterns very clearly, DO NOT TRADE.
- All of this is Setups, analysis of STDevs is Targeting, we need to know our targets before we have Setups.
- Because ICT has three patterns, he has a buy program, a sell program, and a contingency program.
Reverse these patterns for Bearish Patterns.
- Bearish scenario
  - Assuming we have mapped out POIs PD Arrays etc.
    - i.e. London
    - Price has been trading lower.
    - Is Wednesday
    - Rallies up past London Open
      - This is our TS Entry.
      - Runs out buy stops
      - Price didn't trade up to premium array or deep enough retracement
        
        Maybe we are on a 4h chart.
      - We can anticipate expansion down
      - May occur during London or NY Open when price retraces to the TS Entry.
Breakers are powerful POIs once created.
Must understand PD Array Matrix, and HTF down to LTFs, with same ideas using institutional oder flow, and market structure. Without this we will have no consistency.
We refine our price understanding from an institutional perspective.
Knowing that our demo account or live account is going to have slightly skewed pricing.
From an intraday stand point we can look at a range of maybe 10-15 pips off interbank pricing.
There is a little more risk in day trading, we already have a range or spread that we don't even know about, because our broker is adding a premium on top of interbank pricing.
Brokers can and do use spread to take your stops.
NOTE: the first thing ICT looks for in all charts in all time frames is BREAKERS.
Gives immediate context, even if you're wrong you get immediate feedback from the market and can get in alignment with the market.
Losing give us a premium insight.
DON'T TRY TO FIGHT THIS, we can't win this battle.

Transpose from 4h to LTF charts

Decide what time frame you want to drop into and transpose 4h chart data to. 1h, 15m, 5m. ICT doesn't like the 1m chart. We the trader decide which LTF we like.
ICT prefers 4h to 15m and then further refinement on 5m for trade execution.
Usually looking for setups confirm for trade entry on 15m minimum. The best is to get down to a 5m chart but we don't always have this luxury. but if we can use 5m for trade execution.
Time frames below 1h may offer a more clear trade entry.
We are looking for a time frame that produces FVGs this is the key. LTFs do this
This way we can see our PD Arrays and pick our PD Arrays based on Gaps, order blocks, breakers
LTFs show "pockets of ill-liquidity" that need to be finished and refined, by the algo.
Patterns to research, that ICT mentions as other patterns he can see.
ICT Stinger patterns
Reflection patterns
ORO patterns
Concepts for Research
IPDA True Day
- Every day at 00:00 NY Time
  - Beginning of 24 hour IPDA Trading Day
- Every day at 15:00 NY Time
  - End of 24 hour IPDA Trading Day
- These are on the same day. ie. midnight to 3pm est.
Spooz (S&P500 Futures Slang from 1980s trading)
PD Arrays (April videos)
- Define the Consolidation Range:
- Fib from Highest Body to Lowest Body over range of time.
- Note 50% level and draw horizontal line.
- Next we determine the 50% levels of upper and lower ranges.
  - Anything in the upper range above 50% we look to sell (STC) our longs and or enter short (STO).
  - Anything below our lower range 50% we look to buy(cover BTC) our shorts or buy (enter BTO) longs.
  - Measure top of upper range to equilibrium and draw 50% line.
  - Measure bottom of lower range to equilibrium and draw 50% line.
  - Anything above 50% is premium range and and below is discount range
- Identify PD Array POIs
  - In each new range
  - Apply everything from monthly, weekly, and daily.
  - Every P/D Array provide setups in the P/D Array matrix
    - Looking for an element of time and price to blend a setup for a buy or sell.
    - Highest probability for shorts is looking for anything above 50% (premium)
      - Coupled with PD Array for premium market we are blending both time and price.
        
        We'd be looking for the move to be correlated to a later discount array when price moves below the mid-point of the consolidation range.
  - View each range as unique ranges from a PD array format.
    - Anything that forms a PD array POI is a high probability trade entry and 1st profits should be taken when the price moves across the mid-point
Breakers
- Bullish Breaker, short term high between two lows, one low will be lower and run Sell Stops, we use this as resistance is broken that will become support.
- Bearish Breaker, trades higher and takes out an old high, then trades below short term low that made the new high, our focus is on the short term low.
- Displacement from a POI is an indication of breaker being formed.
- Breakers Require BOS as well
Times for CBDR and Asian Range
- CBDR = 14:00 to 20:00
- AR = 20:00 to 00:00
- Flout (CBDR + AR) = 14:00 to 00:00
Fib levels for projecting ranges.
- wip
Refine the concept of Condition, Stage, Execution.
- wip
Starts trade examples at (53:00)