Societal Simulation - keskival/ai_enabled_transparency_of_governance_and_power GitHub Wiki

To develop machine learning and machine intelligence models, we would benefit greatly from toy models and simulations. These simulations need to be convenient and minimal, but also replicate the key dynamics of the system.

Cliodynamics is study of long term historical data from societies in a mathematical predictive setting.

Common Adaptive Model of the State / Catch All Network (CAMS-CAN) Framework

This is a GPT model instruction set created by Kari Freyr McKern Sydney.

The whole parametrization of the GPT is here.

The CAMS (Common Adaptive Model of the State) framework provides a unique way of understanding how societies function by looking at the various centers of power, or "nodes," that interact to maintain stability and resilience. Think of it like observing the organs in a living body: each has its own role, but the health of the body depends on how well they work together. Here's how this model can be useful to a layperson:

1. Understanding Power Distribution

In any society, different groups or institutions hold power. CAMS identifies key "nodes" such as:

The Executive (Government): Makes laws, enforces policies.
Property Owners: Control wealth and resources.
The Army: Provides security and defense.
Trades and Professions: Represents the skilled workforce.
The Proletariat (Working Class): The majority who drive economic activity.
The Priesthood (Intellectual and Cultural Leaders): Influences ideology and culture.
State Memory: Bureaucratic and legal institutions that ensure continuity.
The Storekeepers: Merchants and businesses that manage the economy’s flow.
State Checksums: The public sphere where ideas and policies are scrutinized through rational discourse.

By observing these nodes, you can better understand how societies operate and where power struggles might happen. For instance, if the executive oversteps, it might undermine the role of State Checksums (public debate) or if property owners hold too much influence, inequality could grow.

2. Explaining Societal Stability or Collapse

The model helps explain why some states thrive and others collapse. By comparing historical cases, we can see how the balance between nodes affects stability. For example:

In the Roman Republic, an imbalance between elites, the army, and the working class led to civil wars and the fall of the Republic【5†source】.
In modern times, a country might experience instability if one node (e.g., the military) becomes too dominant or if elites compete too fiercely, leaving other parts of society neglected.

3. Emergent Properties: Freedom, Cooperation, and Innovation

Certain societal characteristics, like freedom or economic prosperity, are "emergent properties," meaning they result from the balance and interaction of these nodes. When nodes cooperate—such as a fair government, an empowered workforce, and a vibrant intellectual community—you get positive outcomes like innovation and freedom. If they compete destructively, society may face conflict, inequality, or authoritarianism.

4. Practical Application

The CAMS framework can be used to analyze real-world events. For instance, if you see protests in a country, CAMS would prompt you to ask: which node is out of balance? Is it a conflict between property owners and the proletariat? Or perhaps the executive has bypassed State Checksums, ignoring public opinion?

Overall, the CAMS framework helps break down complex societal functions into manageable pieces, offering insight into how societies succeed, adapt, or fail. It’s a powerful tool for anyone interested in the dynamics of power and societal health.

Comments and Feedback welcome.

https://chatgpt.com/g/g-Rc226IYKo-atlas-of-geopolitical-complexity-camscan

As regards the explainatory power of the model, its functional approach is very revealing. Question: Explain the rise of Donald Trump.

The rise of political figures like Donald Trump can be explained by analyzing the dynamics of societal nodes and their interactions, as outlined in the CAMS model. Several historical and philosophical insights from the CAMS knowledge base shed light on the phenomenon:

1. Fractured Elite Cohesion (Executive, Property Owners, and Priesthood Nodes): Trump's rise signals a breakdown in elite cohesion. Similar to historical examples, such as the collapse of the Roman Republic or feudal systems, when elites (political, economic, and intellectual) fail to present a united front, it creates openings for populist leaders to exploit. Machiavelli's insights into elite power struggles suggest that fratricidal competition among elites can enable charismatic outsiders like Trump to capitalize on division and offer themselves as alternatives to a dysfunctional system.

2. Cultural Hegemony and the Priesthood Node: Antonio Gramsci’s concept of cultural hegemony is vital for understanding Trump's ability to mobilize mass support by challenging the dominant ideological narrative. The intellectual elites and cultural institutions, traditionally part of the "priesthood," failed to maintain their influence over large sections of the population. This gap allowed Trump to appeal directly to the proletariat and disaffected segments of society, creating a new cultural narrative centered on nationalism, anti-elitism, and skepticism of globalism.

3. The Proletariat and Populism: Trump's appeal to working-class voters reflects the mobilization of the proletariat node against a perceived alliance of elites (government, media, academia). The discontent of the working class, fueled by economic inequality, loss of industrial jobs, and globalization, provided fertile ground for populist messaging. This parallels historical moments like the rise of socialist movements in the early 20th century, where labor unrest created opportunities for new political actors.

4. Weakness in State Checksums (Rational Public Discourse): The CAMS model emphasizes the importance of the "State Checksums," a space for rigorous public discourse. Trump's success is partly attributable to a breakdown in this space. Polarization, media fragmentation, and the rise of alternative information sources undermined the traditional public sphere where policies and ideas were tested. This disruption allowed Trump to bypass traditional media and intellectual gatekeepers, appealing directly to voters via social media and rallies.

5. Freedom and Authority Paradox (Executive Power): From a philosophical perspective, Trump's appeal resonates with the paradox of freedom and authority. As Hobbes argued in Leviathan, people may gravitate toward strong, centralized authority in times of uncertainty or chaos. Trump's strongman image, combined with promises of restoring order and sovereignty, especially resonated with voters seeking security from external (immigration, trade) and internal (political corruption) threats.

In summary, Trump's rise is a result of elite fragmentation, proletariat mobilization, cultural discontent, and the erosion of public discourse, set against a backdrop of economic and social uncertainty. His appeal can be understood as a response to imbalances in the societal nodes and their interactions.