Model Documentation

Each model deployed on Semaphore comes with unique requirements and specifications tailored to optimize its performance and accuracy in forecasting.

Magnolia

Together, the magnolia and transform models predict water levels 48 hours at Magnolia Beach, Texas.

Model	Prediction Span	Description
magnolia_12	7 hours	Predicts the water levels for the next 7 hours
magnolia_transform_12	12 hours	Uses the previous 7 hours predicted by magnolia_12 to forecast the next 5 hours, making a total of 12 hours
magnolia_24	19 hours	Predicts the water levels for the next 19 hours
magnolia_transform_24	24 hours	Uses the previous 19 hours predicted by magnolia_24 to forecast the next 5 hours, making a total of 24 hours
magnolia_48	43 hours	Predicts the water levels for the next 43 hours
magnolia_transform_48	48 hours	Uses the previous 43 hours predicted by magnolia_48 to forecast the next 5 hours, making a total of 48 hours

Special Requirements:

The transform model must have at least a 1-minute offset after its corresponding magnolia model. For instance, if magnolia_12 runs at 1:00, magnolia_transform_12 should run at 1:01 to ensure it captures the latest data point generated by magnolia_12.

The transform models retrieve information from Semaphore's database to generate predictions.

Documentation:

05/30/2024: We expanded the range of magnolia_transform_12. Initially, this model was missing two inputs. To address this issue, we consulted with the model creator to determine the best course of action, and it was decided to increase the range of inputs to resolve the issue.

06/07/2024: We have decided to switch the input datum to D2W in preparation for visualization. The initial data that will be compared with the Magnolia predictions now exclusively use D2W datums instead of MLLW.

08/02/2024: Requests from lighthouse were unsuccessful. This affected predictions for Magnolia. On 08/02/2024 we fixed the lighthouse issue by changing the request url to use https instead of http.

09/06/2024: Discovered that the magnolia models trained on data that was alternating in descending and ascending order. Semaphore only sends data in ascending order. The magnolia models have now been retrained and the h5 files have been replaced.

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Surge

These models predict the water level surges for the next 72 hours at Aransas Pass, North Jetty, Port Isabel, and Rockport.

Location	Model	Prediction Span
Aransas Pass	ar_mlp_surge_12h	12 hours
	ar_mlp_surge_24h	24 hours
	ar_mlp_surge_48h	48 hours
	ar_mlp_surge_72h	72 hours
North Jetty	nj_mlp_surge_12h	12 hours
	nj_mlp_surge_24h	24 hours
	nj_mlp_surge_48h	48 hours
	nj_mlp_surge_72h	72 hours
Port Isabel	pi_mlp_surge_12h	12 hours
	pi_mlp_surge_24h	24 hours
	pi_mlp_surge_48h	48 hours
	pi_mlp_surge_72h	72 hours
Rockport	rp_S2S_surge_12h	12 hours
	rp_S2S_surge_24h	24 hours
	rp_S2S_surge_48h	48 hours
	rp_S2S_surge_72h	72 hours

Special Requirements:

The 48-hour and 72-hour models require interpolation to function properly on Semaphore

Documentation:

5/30/2024: All 48-hour and 72-hour models will be temporarily deactivated because they require post-processing that is only possible with an upgrade to dspec version 2.0. Once their dspec version is upgraded, they will be reactivated.

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Virginia Key

Predicts 96 hours of water level data at Virginia Key, Florida.

Model	Prediction Span
12hr_VirginiaKey_wl	12 hours
24hr_VirginiaKey_wl	24 hours
48hr_VirginiaKey_wl	48 hours
72hr_VirginiaKey_wl	72 hours
96hr_VirginiaKey_wl	96 hours

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Inundation

These models predict inundation at Aransas for each month.

Month	12-hour Lead Time	24-hour Lead Time	48-hour Lead Time
January	jan_inundation_12h	jan_inundation_24h	jan_inundation_48h
February	feb_inundation_12h	feb_inundation_24h	feb_inundation_48h
March	mar_inundation_12h	mar_inundation_24h	mar_inundation_48h
April	apr_inundation_12h	apr_inundation_24h	apr_inundation_48h
May	may_inundation_12h	may_inundation_24h	may_inundation_48h
June	jun_inundation_12h	jun_inundation_24h	jun_inundation_48h
July	jul_inundation_12h	jul_inundation_24h	jul_inundation_48h
August	aug_inundation_12h	aug_inundation_24h	aug_inundation_48h
September	sep_inundation_12h	sep_inundation_24h	sep_inundation_48h
October	oct_inundation_12h	oct_inundation_24h	oct_inundation_48h
November	nov_inundation_12h	nov_inundation_24h	nov_inundation_48h
December	dec_inundation_12h	dec_inundation_24h	dec_inundation_48h

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MLP-OP

This single model can predict 2 days of water temperature data at South Bird Island.

• MLP-OP

This single model can predict 2 days of water temperature data at South Bird Island.

Documentation:

06/05/2024: Deactivated temporarily due to the temporary deactivation of the Packery Channel station.

06/02/2024: Reactivated as Packery Channel has been reinstated

08/02/2024: Requests from lighthouse were unsuccessful. This affected predictions for MLP-OP. On 08/02/2024 we fixed the lighthouse issue by changing the request url to use https instead of http.

09/20/2024: Updated the dspec version to 2.0. Allowing postprocess calls and interpolation.

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Thermal Refuge

This single model predicts the current water temperature in the Laguna Madre canals using historical data from South Bird Island.

Model

• ThermalRefuge

Documentation:

08/02/2024: Requests from lighthouse were unsuccessful. This affected predictions for Thermal Refuge. On 08/02/2024 we fixed the lighthouse issue by changing the request url to use https instead of http.