Bayes Theorem

How to change your mind given new or updated information.

Eye Surgery Example

I scratched my eye and I'm freaking out. I think there's probably a 5:1 chance I need surgery. If I update those odds with prior odds that probably only 1:100 ever have eye surgery (besides LASIK) then (1:100 * 5:1) means there's still only a 1 in 20 chance that I actually need surgery. These are better odds! I feel more calm!

src: [1]

Resources

• [1] https://neilkakkar.com/Bayes-Theorem-Framework-for-Critical-Thinking.html
• [2] Think Bayes -- examples in Python -- http://www.greenteapress.com/thinkbayes/html/index.html