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Degradation Rules

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Degradation Rules

This document details the tire degradation rule subsystem within the F1 Strategy Manager's expert system. The component evaluates tire performance metrics to generate strategic pit stop recommendations. For related gap-based strategy rules, see Gap Analysis Rules.

Overview

Tire degradation is a critical factor in Formula 1 race strategy. As tires wear, their performance deteriorates, affecting lap times and potentially race position. The F1DegradationRules engine continuously monitors tire performance metrics and issues strategic recommendations based on predefined thresholds.

Core Rule Definitions

The degradation rule system implements four primary rules that evaluate different aspects of tire performance:

Rule Condition Action Confidence Priority
High Degradation Pit Stop DegradationRate > 0.3 AND TyreAge > 10 "pit_stop" 0.8 2
Stint Extension DegradationRate < 0.15 AND PredictedRate < 0.20 AND TyreAge > 12 "extend_stint" 0.75 1
Early Warning DegradationRate increase > 0.03 over 3 laps "prepare_pit" 0.7 1
Predicted Degradation Alert PredictedRate > 0.2 AND TyreAge > 8 "consider_pit" 0.8 2

Fact Objects and Data Flow

The rule engine processes three types of facts:

Detailed Rule Implementation

1. High Degradation Pit Stop Rule

Triggers when tire degradation exceeds critical thresholds, indicating significant performance loss that requires immediate attention.

2. Stint Extension Recommendation Rule

Identifies opportunities to extend the current tire stint when degradation remains low despite tire age, potentially gaining track position.

3. Early Degradation Warning Rule

Monitors for rapid increases in degradation rate over consecutive laps, providing advance notice of potential pit stop needs.

4. Predicted High Degradation Alert Rule

Uses machine learning predictions to anticipate future degradation, allowing proactive strategy adjustments before performance deteriorates.

Threshold Determination

The rule thresholds were established through statistical analysis of historical race data.

The degradation thresholds were derived from quartile analysis:

  • High Degradation (0.3 s/lap) - Approximates the 75th percentile of observed degradation rates
  • Low Degradation (0.15 s/lap) - Approximates the 25th percentile
  • Warning Threshold (0.03 s/lap increase) - Based on empirical analysis of critical performance changes

Integration with Strategy Engine

The degradation rules are implemented as an extension of the base F1StrategyEngine class through inheritance. Each degradation rule generates StrategyRecommendation objects that include:

  • Action - The recommended strategy action (e.g., "pit_stop", "extend_stint")
  • Confidence - A numeric value (0.0-1.0) indicating recommendation confidence
  • Explanation - A human-readable justification for the recommendation
  • Priority - Numeric priority level (higher values indicate greater urgency)
  • Lap Issued - The lap number when the recommendation was generated

These recommendations flow into the complete strategy engine for final decision-making, where they may be combined with recommendations from other rule systems.

Testing Functions

The module provides several utility functions for testing the rule engine:

Single Driver Test

test_with_real_data(race_data_path, models_path): Tests the rule engine with a single driver's data.

Multi-Driver Test

test_multiple_drivers(race_data_path, models_path, driver_numbers=None): Evaluates rules across multiple drivers.

Visualization Tools

  • analyze_degradation_rate(degradation_data): Analyzes distribution of degradation rates
  • plot_driver_degradation_profile(degradation_data, driver_number): Visualizes a specific driver's degradation pattern

Example Output

When the degradation rules engine generates a recommendation, it includes a detailed explanation for the strategy team:

Recommendation:
Action: pit_stop
Confidence: 0.8
Explanation: High tire degradation rate detected (0.32 > 0.3) with significant tire age (15 laps)
Priority: 2
Lap issued: 18

Relationship to Other Systems

The degradation rules work in conjunction with other rule systems, particularly:

  1. Gap Rules: While degradation rules focus on absolute tire performance, gap rules consider relative positions between cars
  2. Lap Time Rules: Analyze overall performance trends that may be influenced by, but not limited to, tire degradation
  3. Radio Rules: Process team radio communications that might mention tire conditions

The complete strategy engine reconciles potentially conflicting recommendations from these systems using confidence scores and priority levels.

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