Prediction Explained - Gosin/Smarking GitHub Wiki
#Prediction Explanation:
Classified original data as normal days and holidays. Normal days classified as different weekdays. Applied Random Forest Method to analyze different weekday. And analyzed holidays manually due to little information on holidays.
Prediction
| Hour | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | Saturday | Sunday |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 42 | 52 | 55 | 58 | 56 | 47 | 44 |
| 1 | 41 | 48 | 50 | 52 | 51 | 45 | 43 |
| 2 | 39 | 45 | 47 | 49 | 48 | 45 | 42 |
| 3 | 40 | 44 | 46 | 48 | 47 | 44 | 42 |
| 4 | 68 | 73 | 75 | 76 | 62 | 44 | 42 |
| 5 | 244 | 252 | 253 | 248 | 154 | 45 | 43 |
| 6 | 857 | 875 | 869 | 850 | 490 | 49 | 46 |
| 7 | 1650 | 1670 | 1669 | 1643 | 1020 | 58 | 52 |
| 8 | 2360 | 2389 | 2400 | 2361 | 1612 | 70 | 63 |
| 9 | 2543 | 2573 | 2600 | 2568 | 1792 | 83 | 81 |
| 10 | 2585 | 2625 | 2648 | 2624 | 1822 | 92 | 108 |
| 11 | 2601 | 2634 | 2649 | 2610 | 1802 | 94 | 116 |
| 12 | 2560 | 2595 | 2612 | 2577 | 1681 | 95 | 119 |
| 13 | 2560 | 2600 | 2615 | 2582 | 1595 | 92 | 102 |
| 14 | 2544 | 2556 | 2568 | 2541 | 1386 | 88 | 85 |
| 15 | 2462 | 2481 | 2480 | 2439 | 1210 | 81 | 82 |
| 16 | 2222 | 2218 | 2231 | 2157 | 898 | 75 | 78 |
| 17 | 1398 | 1407 | 1409 | 1345 | 532 | 68 | 72 |
| 18 | 692 | 700 | 712 | 663 | 255 | 63 | 66 |
| 19 | 289 | 301 | 314 | 291 | 141 | 57 | 60 |
| 20 | 153 | 164 | 176 | 162 | 99 | 53 | 55 |
| 21 | 111 | 119 | 127 | 120 | 85 | 51 | 52 |
| 22 | 87 | 91 | 95 | 92 | 69 | 48 | 48 |
| 23 | 66 | 69 | 72 | 69 | 55 | 45 | 45 |
Peak Period is 8AM-4PM from Monday to Thursday. 8AM-2PM on Friday.
Occupancies from Monday to Thursday is relatively consistent. Both the peak timeframe and peak occupancies. But Friday is relative shorter and lower compared to other weekdays.
On Saturday and Sunday the occupancies is much lower compared to weekdays. And most time the occupancies are around 100 cars.
Different federal holidays have different effects. New Year's Day, Memorial Day, Independence Day, Labor Day, Thanksgiving Day, Christmas Day have significant influence on occupancies. And can be treated as Saturday or Sunday even though that day is weekday. Other federal holidays (Martin Luther King's Day, Washington's Birthday, Columbus Day, Veterans Day) have little influence on occupancies and can be treated as normal days.
Holidays like New Year's Eve, Christmas Day also could affect the day before or after. It should be take into consideration.
And several abnormal days couldn't fit into weekday or holidays pattern which could be affected by weather or other factors which I couldn't get from the data I have. So I'll ignore them.
Gosin
05/19/2016