The Tropical Cyclone Risk Model - GeoscienceAustralia/tcrm GitHub Wiki

Thanks for checking out the Tropical Cyclone Risk Model (TCRM). TCRM is a statistical-parametric model of tropical cyclones (TCs), suitable for generating catalogues of synthetic TCs that are statistically similar to historical (or other) records of TC activity.

The statistical component drives the track generation, using an autoregressive model with stochastic sampling to create tracks based on the statistical behaviour of the historical record.

The parametric component defines the wind fields around each synthetic track, based on widely published radial profiles and boundary layer models of TCs.

A third stage fits extreme value distributions to aggregated wind fields to calculate average recurrence interval (ARI) or annual exceedance probability (AEP) wind speeds across a simulation domain.

This wiki holds some useful notes for installing, testing and running the model.

For a full description and complete guide to the model, see the documentation at https://geoscienceaustralia.github.io/tcrm