ticket_370_G2Tracks - ACCESS-NRI/accessdev-Trac-archive GitHub Wiki

First trial period 20180224T06-20180501T12 (control=bl688, denial=bm460)

TC First cycle of trial last cycle of trial lon/lat when first declared Category Comments
HOLA 2018022406 2018031112 -15.8, 169.0 mincp=952 Cat 4 SouthPacific named on 20180306 and at its naming Cat 1
LINDA 2018030306 2018032512 -20.3, 159.0 mincp=994 SouthPacific
MARCUS 2018030606 2018032512 -10.3, 132.6 mincp=916 AusTopEnd
NORA 2018030906 2018032712 -9.9, 137.0 mincp=958 AusTopEnd
IRIS 2018031406 2018040512 -14.1, 160.5 mincp=987 SouthPacific
JELAWAT 2018031406 2018040112 7.2, 138.7 mincp=935 NorthWestPacific
JOSIE 2018032106 2018040212 -18.4, 175.7 mincp=993 SouthPacific
KENI 2018032906 2018041112 -16.1, 170.1 mincp=970 SouthPacific
FLAMBOYAN 2018041706 2018050112 -8.6, 90.5 mincp=983 SouthIndianOcean

Comparative error plots

terr_comparison.tcvitals.alldates.bl688_bm460.all.png,400px terr.tcvitals.alldates.bl688_bm460.all.png,600px
cpabs_comparison.tcvitals.alldates.bl688_bm460.all.png,400px abscp.tcvitals.alldates.bl688_bm460.all.png,600px
cpbias_comparison.tcvitals.alldates.bl688_bm460.all.png,400px cperr.tcvitals.alldates.bl688_bm460.all.png,600px

NOTE: Longer outlook period averages are dominated by forecasts for the long-lived TC Iris which was quite weak (mincp=987) for which ACCESS-G could simulate the intensity reasonably well.

bm976_control bm460_denial
IRIS.veritrk.tcvitals.alldates.glm_bl688_control.IRIS.multi_intensity_1.png,600px IRIS.veritrk.tcvitals.alldates.glm_bm460_denial.IRIS.multi_intensity_1.png,600px
IRIS.veritrk.tcvitals.alldates.glm_bl688_control.IRIS.multi_track.png,600px
IRIS.veritrk.tcvitals.alldates.glm_bm460_denial.IRIS.multi_track.png,600px

Second trial period 20190809T06-20190909T12 (control=bm976, denial=bn066)

TC First cycle of trial last cycle of trial lon/lat when first declared Category Comments
LEKIMA 2019080412 2019081212 17.5, 130.8 cpmin=920 NorthWestPacific
KROSA 2019080612 2019081600 18.9, 142.4 cpmin=950 NorthWestPacific
BAILU 2019082112 2019082512 15.8, 130.7 cpmin=985 NorthWestPacific
PODUL 2019082700 2019083000 14.7, 127.0 cpmin=992 NorthWestPacific
LINGLING 2019090200 2019090712 15.1, 126.1 cpmin=940 NorthWestPacific
KAJIKI 2019090300 2019090300 15.9, 107.1 cpmin=998 NorthWestPacific
FAXAI 2019090512 2019091000 20.6, 154.6 cpmin=955 NorthWestPacific
terr_comparison.tcvitals.alldates.bm976_bn066.all.png,400px terr.tcvitals.alldates.bm976_bn066.all.png,600px
cpabs_comparison.tcvitals.alldates.bm976_bn066.all.png,400px abscp.tcvitals.alldates.bm976_bn066.all.png,600px
cpbias_comparison.tcvitals.alldates.bm976_bn066.all.png,400px cperr.tcvitals.alldates.bm976_bn066.all.png,600px

NOTE: Longer outlook period averages are dominated by forecasts for the long-lived Hurricane Dorian which was quite deep (mincp=915) for which ACCESS-G did NOT simulate the intensity at all well.

bm976_control bn066_denial
DORIAN.veritrk.tcvitals.alldates.glm_bm976_control.DORIAN.multi_intensity_1.png,600px DORIAN.veritrk.tcvitals.alldates.glm_bn066_denial.DORIAN.multi_intensity_1.png,600px
DORIAN.veritrk.tcvitals.alldates.glm_bm976_control.DORIAN.multi_track.png,600px DORIAN.veritrk.tcvitals.alldates.glm_bn066_denial.DORIAN.multi_track.png,600px

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