Odd and Ends: ENSO , AMO, ... - pukpr/GeoEnergyMath Wiki

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image Series1 is AMO, Series2 is ENSO image

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The relationship between the LTE modulation of AMO and ENSO is 13/9. In other words, the modulation ration of AMO to ENSO is 13/9, indicating approximately the main wavenumber ratio.


Cross-validation https://geoenergymath.com/2022/09/12/cross-validation/comment-page-1/#comment-3647

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Now peek at what is before 1880

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try a later excluded region image

this is a CC=0.19 in the excluded region image

CC=0.268 image

this is a CC=0.34, note how all the El Nino peaks register image

identifies the strong 1878 El Nino peak image

from 1882 to 2005 image

Taking the SOI CC=0.307 image

This is amazing, at least for the 1850 to 1880 AMO cross-validation, which is truly out-of-band since I hadn't looked at it until this morning (9/15/2022)

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Not as good image

Peeking 👏 image


AMO Resp file REF_TIME 0.000 ALIAS FALSE CAL true CLIMATE_INDEX2 amo_long.dat CLIMATE_INDEX amo_short.dat CLIMATE_INDEX1 amo_avg.dat DLOD_REF true FILTER 0.3 FLIP 0.001 FORCING FALSE FSTEP 0.18 F9 0 IMPA 9.03 IMPB 9 IMPC -1 IMPD -1 IMPULSE DELTA IR 0.0 MAXH 10000 MAXLOOPS 10000 MERMS FALSE METRIC CC MLR FALSE NH "1 1 1 1 1 1" NM 2 PARETO false RESET FALSE SAMPLING 12.0 SCALING 1.0 SINPOW 0 SPLIT_LOW FALSE SPLIT_TRAINING FALSE SPREAD_CYCLE 100.0 SPREAD_MIN 0.0000000001 SPREAD_MAX 0.15 STARTING_METRIC 0.001 STEP false THRESHOLD 99 THRESHOLD_ACTION CATCHUP -TRAIN_END 1945 TRAIN_START 1975 TRAIN_END 2010 -TRAIN_START1 1945 TREND FALSE -YEAR 0.0000000 -IMPAVALUE 9.03 -IMPBVALUE 0.25 -BG 55.0 Par file offs -0.00001711551 bg 0.00020030315 impA -0.00000102529 impB -0.00000009551 impC -0.00002372596 delA 17.11980788666 delB 0.23350727003 asym -0.21240969258 ann1 0.02930321102 ann2 9.06845612020 sem1 0.00824587676 sem2 -0.93170523013 year -0.00001326091 IR 0.00994075386 ma -0.00008581213 mp -0.00026765864 shfT 0.02018035163 init -23.47378548700 9.10846048930 0.00097635750 -2.49459255430 29.53064711857 0.00552018076 1.56262479778 27.09261953873 0.00440782459 1.81523716493 7.08840404136 0.00699233383 2.86823717042 6.85248206692 0.00665998355 2.75973268238 13.60611041000 0.01388816107 -0.33375338018 13.66081618500 0.31587420751 -2.25408570419 3397.64080307470 0.00630059390 0.78695048661 9.12068594402 0.03807358120 -2.66666397699 13.77727494000 0.01207817394 1.50206944761 6795.28160614939 0.00618382296 -4.86384085163 27.55454988000 0.08192907193 2.07477742518 27.66673720859 0.00562770233 -2.31950118599 27.44326870576 0.00941016696 0.19108206970 1616.09851046018 0.00312140027 1.46292447570 6.85939920631 0.01481120922 2.15828222262 7.09580593320 0.02084236146 1.60581626419 9.55687890877 0.02256679762 2.20248413928 9.13294426107 0.09097468174 2.99339888156 27.32163237000 0.00018604768 -1.80649248350 27.21222082000 0.00401222285 0.63741915106 9.18484996000 0.00267018427 1.80251409686 14.76532355928 0.02461059076 0.61981338588 31.81207637631 0.01411837676 1.56096106956 9.54345699807 0.01137010914 -2.31962528936 13.63340841926 0.12835184690 -1.28549688204 26.98503088862 0.00202746424 1.72006729046 ltep -1.31072199963 ltep 0.72899654672 ltep 0.27337084755 ltep -1.48421343910 ltep -2.44038649532 ltep -6.65995487211 ltep -0.88861900129 ltep 4.36123851719 ltep -0.51022384015 ltep 11.30620082264 ltep 24.79533049773 harm 1904 harm 3 harm 1261 harm 15 harm 387 harm 159 harm 5041 harm 43467 harm 21297 harm 10025 harm 4537 harm 0 other training intervals (not from scratch but evolved)

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IOD

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this is from scratch, the CC=0.999 contrasted to a .985 above. Relaxing the CC may be the key image

this updated from an ENSO NINO34 image

alternate image

PDO

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enso_opt.exe.par.exclude1970-2005

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SOI

CC =0.845 on training

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This is interesting because I started with a fundamental LTE of 0.05 and allowed 8 harmonics to rearrange with a max of 500. CC = 0.75 after also providing a value of LTE=0.78 to the mix as that appeared in the spectrum

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0.00000000000 :trend: -0.01244978615 :K0: -0.07709815026 :level: -0.75431809798, 0.15353400299, 0.14426134431-15 0.04997762100, 0.14549398125, -0.89245693398 1 9.69565847418, 0.15543938462, -3.02455667799 194 31.93569981960, 0.20227672416, 0.16227458048 639 24.18916856445, 0.37957225321, -1.22043490703 484 15.79292823630, 0.18105129940, -1.44287317147 316 4.84782923709, 0.15311203212, 1.33223493951 97 37.73310385571, 0.29352511731, -2.14270299658 755 6.24720262512, 0.17230685511, 3.13197749730 125 47.87856091890, 0.66820841495, 2.60340581051 958 EXITING CC 0.7493349261 0.0000000000 2 1 0.99990136692:dLOD:

AMO

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SOI DARWIN

image (wrong excluded training)

offs -0.00001022478 bg 0.00000208019 impA 0.00000107657 impB 0.00002359465 impC -0.00000000000 delA 17.23410233011 delB 0.25557128288 asym -0.17471435967 ann1 -0.10458144328 ann2 0.85844059543 sem1 0.06484087550 sem2 -1.36730053695 year -0.00000157389 IR -0.00215347288 ma 0.00000030559 mp 0.00000000000 shfT 0.01971794503 init 0.00000000000 9.10846048930 0.00367712457 -2.32782487817 29.53064704217 0.00338465652 4.73213813531 27.09261953873 0.00390306379 1.76960960538 7.08840403256 0.00995097622 2.99132142446 6.85248206692 0.00822678798 3.55148735457 13.60611041000 0.01025941469 -0.43879765473 13.66081618500 0.30149044103 -2.28477651851 3397.64080307470 0.00119961816 0.00043082258 9.12068594402 0.03280720261 -2.76167109712 13.77727494000 0.01440808513 1.59186405623 6795.28160614939 0.00064068759 -5.19266937047 27.55454988000 0.07850150743 2.10941398425 27.66673720859 0.00544473971 -2.45898204264 27.44326870576 0.00699158572 0.25188620259 1616.09851046018 0.00186989439 -2.80644269842 6.85939920631 0.01764087210 2.15455156816 7.09580592438 0.01993658567 1.72846566163 9.55687889277 0.01475333907 2.46519621493 9.13294426107 0.08680351326 2.93723462226 27.32163237000 0.00327283931 3.26463800007 27.21222082000 0.00204206447 1.05790218261 9.18484996000 0.00391135911 0.20746567480 14.76532352108 0.02191410672 0.50632788162 31.81207619900 0.01723709417 1.81508274553 9.54345698211 0.00660889819 -2.61815148807 13.63340841926 0.12511831465 -1.30251009608 26.98503088862 0.00507668048 1.70311815501 ltep 2.23764224937 ltep 0.70957712065 ltep 0.21847641827 ltep -23.00082842094 ltep -201.25715676336 ltep 2.63021173963 ltep 0.22705702494 ltep -0.62343867412 ltep 16.46398754859 ltep -9.09501054943 ltep -0.00436425729 harm 7 harm 1798 harm 109 harm 1538 harm 13491 harm 33802 harm 6077 harm 17020 harm 43467 harm 9461 harm 18621 harm 10 harm 0 cc=0.84 image

Tahiti

cc=0.736 (reverse) image

cc=0.8 (not-reversed) image

cross-validation image

Back to DARWIN image

SOI check

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Darwin

` 0.00000000000 :trend:

-0.01963754576 :K0:

0.36583450104 :level:

-2.24659293816, 0.19625410385, 1.01355077095 10

-0.59679399143, 0.16664773771, 1.93053180169 3

23.81338660204, 0.83159038559, -2.18850922556-101

-0.23642121209, 0.19255849647, -0.52880629447 1`

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12 high harmonics image

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Tahiti image

Darwin image

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Tahiti image

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Darwin image

Only 4 LTE 0.24, 23.8, 0.6, 2.2 image

3 extra harmonics image

Tahiti (from Darwin) image